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Peterhead vs East Fife — League Two 2018

Peterhead
Peterhead
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
East Fife
East Fife
12/14/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Peterhead48%
×Draw26%
East Fife26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.50
East Fife
1.04

Peterhead creates 44% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 54 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.72
East Fife
1.30

allows per match

Peterhead
0.78
East Fife
1.28

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
74%
Peterhead or East Fife
74%
Draw or East Fife
52%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
24%
East Fife wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
78%
Peterhead 2+ goals
44%
Peterhead 3+ goals
19%
East Fife 1+ goals
65%
East Fife 2+ goals
28%
East Fife 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
65%
East Fife (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 54 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.72 + East Fife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

East Fife attack 1.30 + Peterhead defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterhead scores more
48%
level
26%
East Fife scores more
26%

Peterhead at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterhead vs East Fife

Peterhead beat East Fife 1-0 in League Two on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.