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Peterhead vs Cove Rangers — League Cup 2018

Peterhead
Peterhead
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
7/13/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Peterhead35%
×Draw23%
Cove Rangers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.52
Cove Rangers
1.69

Cove Rangers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.13
Cove Rangers
1.25

allows per match

Peterhead
2.13
Cove Rangers
1.92

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Cove Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
58%
Peterhead or Cove Rangers
77%
Draw or Cove Rangers
65%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
16%
Cove Rangers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
78%
Peterhead 2+ goals
45%
Peterhead 3+ goals
20%
Cove Rangers 1+ goals
82%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
50%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
45%
Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.13 + Cove Rangers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cove Rangers attack 1.25 + Peterhead defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterhead scores more
35%
level
23%
Cove Rangers scores more
42%

Cove Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Cove Rangers

Peterhead beat Cove Rangers 2-1 in League Cup on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.