Peterhead 3–1 Clachnacuddin: Result & Stats

Peterhead

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Clachnacuddin

K. Shanks 75'

R. McAllister 37' (pen)

R. Ward 16'

C. Ferguson 39'

10/28/2023

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBalmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peterhead60%

×Draw18%

Clachnacuddin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchClachnacuddin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.50

Peterhead

2.58

Clachnacuddin

1.50

Peterhead creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

0.67

2.33

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Peterhead

1.83

Clachnacuddin

0.67

allows per match

Peterhead

2.33

Clachnacuddin

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Clachnacuddin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Clachnacuddin →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

79%

Peterhead or Clachnacuddin

82%

Draw or Clachnacuddin

40%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

40%

Clachnacuddin wins by 2+

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

92%

Peterhead 2+ goals

72%

Peterhead 3+ goals

47%

Clachnacuddin 1+ goals

78%

Clachnacuddin 2+ goals

44%

Clachnacuddin 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

74%

Clachnacuddin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Clachnacuddin away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.83 + Clachnacuddin defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Clachnacuddin attack 0.67 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Peterhead scores more

60%

level

18%

Clachnacuddin scores more

21%

Peterhead at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

R. Ward↳ S. Ross

37'

R. McAllisterPenalty

39'

C. Ferguson↳ K. Mason

57'

Jason Brown← J. Armstrong

57'

C. O’Keefe← S. Ross

57'

K. Shanks← R. McAllister

69'

T. Cooper← F. Adams

72'

A. McCarthy← Jack Brown

75'

K. Shanks↳ A. McCarthy

78'

J. Lockett← C. Black

88'

M. Callum← C. Ferguson

89'

R. Urquhart← S. Sutherland

Peterhead

Clachnacuddin

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

57'▲Jason Brown←▼J. Armstrong

57'▲C. O’Keefe←▼S. Ross

57'▲K. Shanks←▼R. McAllister

72'▲A. McCarthy←▼Jack Brown

Peterhead substitutes

5Brown77O’Keefe10Shanks8McCarthy6Strachan30Thompson13Wood

Manager: J. MacDonald

69'▲T. Cooper←▼F. Adams

78'▲J. Lockett←▼C. Black

88'▲M. Callum←▼C. Ferguson

89'▲R. Urquhart←▼S. Sutherland

Clachnacuddin substitutes

20Cooper23Lockett8Callum25Urquhart12Riddle27Coli33Peterkin24Mackenzie