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Peterhead vs Ayr Utd — FA Cup 2019

Peterhead
Peterhead
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundBalmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Peterhead21%
×Draw19%
Ayr Utd61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.42
Ayr Utd
2.50

Ayr Utd creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.83
Ayr Utd
2.67

allows per match

Peterhead
2.33
Ayr Utd
1.00

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
39%
Peterhead or Ayr Utd
81%
Draw or Ayr Utd
79%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
9%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
76%
Peterhead 2+ goals
41%
Peterhead 3+ goals
17%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
92%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
71%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
26%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.83 + Ayr Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ayr Utd attack 2.67 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Peterhead scores more
21%
level
19%
Ayr Utd scores more
61%

Ayr Utd at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Ayr Utd

Peterhead and Ayr Utd drew 1-1 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.