Peterborough 2–1 Wigan: Result & Stats | League One

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

J. Clarke-Harris 85' (pen), 82'

T. Aasgaard 72'

2/27/2021

League One · Round 32Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Peterborough49%

×Draw23%

Wigan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.29

Peterborough

1.80

Wigan

1.29

Peterborough creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.91

creates per match

1.07

1.51

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Wigan

1.07

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Wigan

1.70

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

72%

Peterborough or Wigan

77%

Draw or Wigan

51%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

27%

Wigan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

83%

Peterborough 2+ goals

54%

Peterborough 3+ goals

27%

Wigan 1+ goals

72%

Wigan 2+ goals

37%

Wigan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

64%

Wigan (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wigan attack 1.07 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peterborough scores more

49%

level

23%

Wigan scores more

28%

Peterborough at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Clarke-Harris

Peterborough · F

8.5

Match Events

12'

Mark Beevers

49'

Luke Robinson

68'

T. Aasgaard← D. Gardner

72'

T. Aasgaard

73'

M. Eisa← S. Szmodics

80'

E. Hamilton← R. Brown

80'

H. Burrows← M. Beevers

82'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ H. Burrows

85'

Jonson Clarke-Harris

85'

J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

86'

G. Johnston← V. Solomon-Otabor

86'

W. Keane← G. Massey

90'

Siriki Dembele

90+1'

R. Jade-Jones← S. Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughWigan

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots10

5Corners5

13Fouls26

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target7

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

385Total Passes276

275Accurate Passes157

71%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls26

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3