Peterborough 0–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

S. Ajayi 90+4'

8/28/2021

Championship · Round 5Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough36%

×Draw27%

West Brom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Peterborough

1.23

West Brom

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 157 away

1.19

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

West Brom

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

63%

Peterborough or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

64%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

West Brom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

71%

Peterborough 2+ goals

35%

Peterborough 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

71%

West Brom 2+ goals

36%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

49%

West Brom (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + West Brom defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Brom attack 1.18 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Peterborough scores more

36%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

37%

West Brom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Phillips

West Brom · F

7.6

Match Events

8'

Oliver Norburn

46'

J. Taylor← O. Norburn

46'

A. Reach← K. Bartley

57'

J. Hugill← G. Diangana

60'

S. Dembélé← J. Marriott

64'

70'

71'

81'

82'

90+5'

90+4'

S. Ajayi↳ M. Phillips

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughWest

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots19

6Corners5

9Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots19

1On Target3

2Off Target10

2Blocked6

1Inside Box13

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

321Total Passes342

188Accurate Passes199

59%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1