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Peterborough vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
J. Clarke-Harris 90+1' (pen), 33'
L. Baker 84' (pen)
J. Brown 28'
3/12/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough39%
×Draw27%
Stoke City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.27
Stoke City
1.15

Peterborough creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 178 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.19
Stoke City
0.99

allows per match

Peterborough
1.31
Stoke City
1.34

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
67%
Peterborough or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
61%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
17%
Stoke City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
36%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%
Stoke City 1+ goals
68%
Stoke City 2+ goals
32%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
54%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peterborough scores more
39%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
33%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. Clarke-HarrisPeterboroughPeterborough · F
8.0

Match Events

28'
J. Brown↳ J. Allen
33'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ J. Fuchs
45+1'
Joe Allen
46'
J. Maja← D. Duhaney
65'
R. Jones← J. Marriott
66'
B. Wilmot← P. Jagielka
70'
Steven Fletcher
70'
T. Campbell← J. Thompson
71'
B. Mumba← H. Burrows
81'
J. Taylor← J. Taylor
84'
L. BakerPenalty
90+4'
Jonson Clarke-Harris
90+1'
J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

Possession

39%Peterborough

Shots

6Peterborough

Pass accuracy

46%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughStoke
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots14
3Corners3
18Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots14
3On Target2
2Off Target10
1Blocked2
5Inside Box10
1Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
309Total Passes491
180Accurate Passes341
58%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Stoke City

Peterborough and Stoke City drew 2-2 in Championship on March 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Brown (28'), J. Clarke-Harris (33', 90+1' pen), L. Baker (84' pen).

Stoke City controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.