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Peterborough vs Stockport County — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
18:45
Stockport County
Stockport County
4/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 41Weston Homes Stadium
52%
Peterborough
model favours
52%22%26%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Peterborough52%
×Draw22%
Stockport County26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.96
Stockport County
1.31

Peterborough creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Peterborough
2.04
Stockport County
1.08

allows per match

Peterborough
1.54
Stockport County
1.89

finishing

Peterborough+0.21scores more
Stockport County-0.08on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
74%
Peterborough or Stockport County
78%
Draw or Stockport County
48%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
30%
Stockport County wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
86%
Peterborough 2+ goals
58%
Peterborough 3+ goals
31%
Stockport County 1+ goals
73%
Stockport County 2+ goals
38%
Stockport County 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
67%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.04 + Stockport County defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stockport County attack 1.08 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more
52%
level
22%
Stockport County scores more
26%

Peterborough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Peterborough sit 18, Stockport County 4 in the table
  • Stockport County outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Stockport County
Balanced
56%Possession53%
80%Pass accuracy75%
12.3Shots12.1
1.64xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughStockport County

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Stockport County
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 75%
1–33–01–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
County
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peterborough host Stockport County

April 13, 2027: Peterborough take on Stockport County in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peterborough host Stockport County at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.