Peterborough 4–0 Southend: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southend

I. Toney 74', 70'

J. Taylor 57'

S. Dembele 50'

2/11/2020

League One · Round 33Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Peterborough56%

×Draw22%

Southend21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.06

Peterborough

1.88

Southend

1.06

Peterborough creates 77% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 44 away

1.88

creates per match

0.95

1.17

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Southend

0.95

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

79%

Peterborough or Southend

78%

Draw or Southend

44%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

33%

Southend wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

85%

Peterborough 2+ goals

56%

Peterborough 3+ goals

29%

Southend 1+ goals

65%

Southend 2+ goals

29%

Southend 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

73%

Southend (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Southend attack 0.95 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peterborough scores more

56%

level

22%

Southend scores more

21%

Peterborough at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Toney

Peterborough · F

8.3

Match Events

28'

45'

48'

50'

57'

J. Taylor↳ S. Dembele

59'

59'

64'

64'

70'

71'

74'

77'

M. Eisa← I. Toney

78'

Mark Milligan

80'

Jason Dimitriou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughSouthend

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots12

4Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots12

8On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked6

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

370Total Passes320

222Accurate Passes170

60%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Southend

Peterborough beat Southend 4-0 in League One on February 11, 2020.

Goals: S. Dembele (50'), J. Taylor (57'), I. Toney (70', 74').

Peterborough controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Southend — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Southend