Peterborough 5–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Shrewsbury

J. Taylor 88'

S. Dembélé 80', 69', 42'

J. Clarke-Harris 16' (pen)

J. Daniels 18'

10/31/2020

League One · Round 10Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Peterborough52%

×Draw25%

Shrewsbury23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.01

Peterborough

1.63

Shrewsbury

1.01

Peterborough creates 61% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 152 away

1.88

creates per match

0.86

1.17

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

77%

Peterborough or Shrewsbury

75%

Draw or Shrewsbury

48%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

28%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

80%

Peterborough 2+ goals

48%

Peterborough 3+ goals

22%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

64%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

27%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

69%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more

52%

level

25%

Shrewsbury scores more

23%

Peterborough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Dembélé

Peterborough · F

10.0

Match Events

16'

Harry Burgoyne

16'

J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

18'

J. Daniels↳ M. Pugh

42'

S. Dembélé↳ S. Szmodics

45'

Josh Vela

46'

J. Cummings← M. Pugh

50'

Reece Brown

53'

L. Reed← R. Brown

58'

Oliver Norburn

69'

S. Dembélé↳ J. Ward

74'

M. Eisa← J. Clarke-Harris

77'

Ethan Ebanks-Landell

80'

S. Dembélé↳ D. Butler

81'

S. Tracey← D. Udoh

82'

I. Kanu← J. Ward

84'

Sammie Szmodics

88'

J. Taylor↳ M. Eisa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughShrewsbury

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots10

3Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots10

8On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

13Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

525Total Passes346

421Accurate Passes227

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2