Peterborough 0–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

C. Morton 81' (OG)

B. Sharp 54'

1/29/2022

Championship · Round 29Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough33%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.28

Peterborough

1.13

Sheffield Utd

1.28

Sheffield Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 116 away

1.19

creates per match

1.25

1.31

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Sheffield Utd

1.25

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Sheffield Utd

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

60%

Peterborough or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

67%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

13%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

68%

Peterborough 2+ goals

31%

Peterborough 3+ goals

11%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

45%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peterborough scores more

33%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

40%

Sheffield Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.6

Match Events

22'

D. McGoldrick← R. Brewster

54'

B. Sharp

62'

Conor Hourihane

65'

C. Morton← J. Marriott

65'

J. Ward← J. Tomlinson

71'

J. Fleck← I. Ndiaye

79'

J. Randall← J. Grant

79'

O. McBurnie← B. Sharp

81'

C. MortonOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughSheffield

Overview

43%Possession57%

3Total Shots20

0Corners9

9Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots20

2On Target5

0Off Target9

1Blocked6

1Inside Box15

2Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

371Total Passes494

255Accurate Passes364

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1