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Peterborough vs QPR — Championship 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
S. Dembélé 90+1'
H. Burrows 56'
I. Chair 50'
10/23/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough40%
×Draw27%
QPR33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.30
QPR
1.15

Peterborough creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 185 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.19
QPR
0.98

allows per match

Peterborough
1.31
QPR
1.41

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
QPR+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
67%
Peterborough or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
60%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
73%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
68%
QPR 2+ goals
32%
QPR 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
55%
QPR (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

QPR away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + QPR defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

QPR attack 0.98 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peterborough scores more
40%
level
27%
QPR scores more
33%

Peterborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
O. NorburnPeterboroughPeterborough · M
8.0

Match Events

50'
I. Chair
54'
I. Kanu← J. Ward
56'
H. Burrows
59'
L. Amos← D. Ball
67'
C. Coventry← J. Grant
67'
A. Gray← C. Austin
82'
C. Willock← S. McCallum
89'
D. Butler← J. Taylor
90+1'
S. Dembélé↳ O. Norburn

Possession

42%Peterborough

Shots

12Peterborough

Pass accuracy

48%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughQPR
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots14
1Corners4
7Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots14
5On Target6
5Off Target3
2Blocked5
7Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
431Total Passes590
340Accurate Passes512
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Peterborough vs QPR

Peterborough beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on October 23, 2021.

Goals: I. Chair (50'), H. Burrows (56'), S. Dembélé (90+1').

QPR controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.