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Peterborough vs Preston — Championship 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
C. Archer 80'
2/12/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough39%
×Draw27%
Preston34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.28
Preston
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 183 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.19
Preston
1.03

allows per match

Peterborough
1.31
Preston
1.38

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
66%
Peterborough or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
61%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
17%
Preston wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%
Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
54%
Preston (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Preston attack 1.03 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peterborough scores more
39%
level
27%
Preston scores more
34%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
D. IversenPrestonPreston · G
8.3

Match Events

28'
Patrick Bauer
61'
B. Mumba← H. Coulson
61'
C. Evans← E. Riis
69'
S. Sinclair← J. Earl
73'
Sepp van den Berg
77'
R. Ledson← B. Whiteman
80'
C. Archer↳ A. Browne
81'
J. Marriott← J. Fuchs
85'
R. Jones← K. Poku

Possession

42%Peterborough

Shots

16Peterborough

Pass accuracy

49%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughPreston
Overview
42%Possession58%
16Total Shots7
3Corners5
10Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots7
6On Target2
5Off Target4
5Blocked1
8Inside Box6
8Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
352Total Passes499
252Accurate Passes372
72%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Championship: Peterborough 0–1 Preston

Preston beat Peterborough 1-0 in Championship on February 12, 2022.

Goals: C. Archer (80').

Preston controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.