Peterborough 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

K. Yengi 77'

3/16/2024

League One · Round 39Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Peterborough43%

×Draw25%

Portsmouth32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.25

Peterborough

1.50

Portsmouth

1.25

Peterborough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 135 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Peterborough

1.90

Portsmouth

1.33

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Portsmouth

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Portsmouth

75%

Draw or Portsmouth

57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

21%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

44%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

71%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

36%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.50

Portsmouth attack 1.33 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more

43%

level

25%

Portsmouth scores more

32%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Z. Swanson

Portsmouth · D

7.7

Match Events

32'

K. Yengi← C. Saydee

61'

G. Whyte← M. Peart-Harris

65'

R. Jones← M. Mothersille

75'

75'

77'

78'

90+3'

90+3'

E. Fernandez← H. Burrows

90+1'

J. Clarke-Harris← J. Katongo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughPortsmouth

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots16

8Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots16

1On Target4

9Off Target5

5Blocked7

11Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

482Total Passes335

385Accurate Passes231

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2