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Peterborough vs Oxford United — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oxford United
Oxford United
J. Knight 41'
C. Brannagan 45+3' (pen)
5/8/2024League OneLeague One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsWeston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peterborough60%
×Draw22%
Oxford United18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.94
Oxford United
0.97

Peterborough creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 5 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.87
Oxford United
0.60

allows per match

Peterborough
1.33
Oxford United
2.00

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
82%
Peterborough or Oxford United
78%
Draw or Oxford United
40%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
36%
Oxford United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
86%
Peterborough 2+ goals
58%
Peterborough 3+ goals
30%
Oxford United 1+ goals
62%
Oxford United 2+ goals
25%
Oxford United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
76%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Oxford United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Oxford United attack 0.60 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Peterborough scores more
60%
level
22%
Oxford United scores more
18%

Peterborough at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. KnightPeterboroughPeterborough · D
8.2

Match Events

30'
Mark Harris
32'
M. McGuane← T. Goodrham
40'
Finley Stevens
41'
J. Knight↳ H. Burrows
45+3'
C. BrannaganPenalty
46'
S. Long← F. Stevens
67'
M. Mothersille← R. Jones
70'
Ciaron Brown
78'
J. Clarke-Harris← K. Poku
78'
D. Ajiboye← J. Katongo
79'
G. Leigh← O. Dale
86'
M. Browne← J. Bennett
90'
E. Fernandez← J. Randall

Possession

70%Peterborough

Shots

18Peterborough

Pass accuracy

56%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughOxford
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots5
14Corners5
12Fouls19
Shots
18Total Shots5
8On Target1
5Off Target2
5Blocked2
14Inside Box1
4Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
494Total Passes221
419Accurate Passes149
85%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls19
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

League One: Peterborough 1–1 Oxford United

Peterborough and Oxford United drew 1-1 in League One on May 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Knight (41'), C. Brannagan (45+3' pen).

Peterborough controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.