Peterborough 2–2 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oxford United

S. Dembele 75'

I. Toney 10'

J. Henry 88' (pen), 42'

12/8/2018

League One · Round 21ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Peterborough46%

×Draw24%

Oxford United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.27

Peterborough

1.63

Oxford United

1.27

Peterborough creates 28% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 135 away

1.88

creates per match

1.36

1.17

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

70%

Peterborough or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

54%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

24%

Oxford United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

80%

Peterborough 2+ goals

48%

Peterborough 3+ goals

22%

Oxford United 1+ goals

72%

Oxford United 2+ goals

36%

Oxford United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

61%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterborough scores more

46%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

30%

Peterborough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

33'

36'

42'

44'

45'

70'

71'

72'

J. Cummings← M. Godden

75'

S. Dembele

80'

R. Holmes← J. Mousinho

84'

Curtis Nelson

88'

J. HenryPenalty

Peterborough

Oxford

1

Eastwood

15

▼

5

6

4

17

⚽2

Henry

14

Ruffles

8

Brannagan

10

A

19

16

1

5

16

3

4

11

▼

Reed

10

⚽

Dembele

9

A

▼

Godden

17

⚽

Toney

21

Maddison

15

Ward

Manager: S. Evans

71'▲M. O'Hara←▼L. Reed

72'▲J. Cummings←▼M. Godden

Peterborough substitutes

8O'Hara35Cummings25O'Malley2Naismith27Bassong26Stevens19Cooper

Manager: K. Robinson

80'▲R. Holmes←▼J. Mousinho

Oxford United substitutes

12Holmes23Long2Norman41Mitchell9Smith3Garbutt22Raglan