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Peterborough vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
12/29/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Peterborough47%
×Draw24%
Milton Keynes Dons28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.65
Milton Keynes Dons
1.22

Peterborough creates 35% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 95 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.90
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
72%
Peterborough or Milton Keynes Dons
76%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
53%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
25%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
81%
Peterborough 2+ goals
49%
Peterborough 3+ goals
23%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
70%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
34%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
63%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Peterborough scores more
47%
level
24%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
28%

Peterborough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Peterborough 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Peterborough beat Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 in League One on December 29, 2022.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.