Peterborough 2–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

J. Clarke-Harris 67'

D. McNamara 64' (OG)

T. Bradshaw 16'

12/11/2021

Championship · Round 22Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough37%

×Draw28%

Millwall35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Peterborough

1.21

Millwall

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 189 away

1.19

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

65%

Peterborough or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

63%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

70%

Peterborough 2+ goals

34%

Peterborough 3+ goals

12%

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

51%

Millwall (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Millwall attack 1.04 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Peterborough scores more

37%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

35%

Peterborough at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

R. Edwards

Peterborough · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

J. Tomlinson← D. Butler

16'

T. Bradshaw↳ J. Wallace

22'

24'

38'

45+1'

55'

56'

J. Clarke-Harris← S. Szmodics

62'

George Evans

64'

D. McNamaraOwn goal

67'

J. Clarke-Harris

74'

S. Ojo← S. Malone

74'

M. Smith← B. Afobe

74'

M. Bennett← J. Wallace

88'

C. Coventry← J. Taylor

90+3'

David Cornell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughMillwall

Overview

64%Possession36%

21Total Shots15

8Corners3

8Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots15

7On Target3

7Off Target8

7Blocked4

11Inside Box9

10Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

565Total Passes304

473Accurate Passes203

84%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0