Peterborough 0–4 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Middlesbrough

D. Watmore 90'

J. Coburn 82'

F. Balogun 49'

M. Tavernier 26'

4/2/2022

Championship · Round 40Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough35%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Peterborough

1.27

Middlesbrough

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 185 away

1.19

creates per match

1.37

1.31

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Middlesbrough

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

62%

Peterborough or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

65%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

48%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Peterborough scores more

35%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

38%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Watmore

Middlesbrough · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

M. Tavernier↳ P. McNair

28'

Frankie Kent

35'

Josh Knight

46'

R. Jones← J. Clarke-Harris

49'

F. Balogun↳ J. Howson

62'

J. Grant← J. Taylor

62'

K. Poku← E. Fernandez

69'

D. Watmore← F. Balogun

74'

Marcus Tavernier

75'

J. Coburn← A. Connolly

82'

J. Coburn↳ D. Watmore

85'

L. Peltier← I. Jones

90+1'

Jorge Grant

90'

D. Watmore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughMiddlesbrough

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots11

5Corners7

19Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target6

4Off Target1

3Blocked4

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

329Total Passes469

197Accurate Passes329

60%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2