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Peterborough vs Leicester — League #45 2026

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Leicester
Leicester
1/27/2018League #45League #45 · 4th RoundABAX Stadium (Peterborough)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peterborough35%
×Draw20%
Leicester44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.98
Leicester
2.23

Leicester creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.71
Leicester
2.75

allows per match

Peterborough
1.71
Leicester
2.25

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
56%
Peterborough or Leicester
80%
Draw or Leicester
65%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
19%
Leicester wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
86%
Peterborough 2+ goals
59%
Peterborough 3+ goals
31%
Leicester 1+ goals
89%
Leicester 2+ goals
65%
Leicester 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
44%
Leicester (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Leicester away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.71 + Leicester defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Leicester attack 2.75 + Peterborough defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peterborough scores more
35%
level
20%
Leicester scores more
44%

Leicester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Leicester

Leicester beat Peterborough 5-1 in League #45 on January 27, 2018.

The match was played at ABAX Stadium (Peterborough).