Peterborough 0–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

9/13/2022

League One · Round 9Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Peterborough49%

×Draw24%

Fleetwood Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Peterborough

1.67

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Peterborough creates 43% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 133 away

1.90

creates per match

1.18

1.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Peterborough

1.90

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Fleetwood Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

73%

Peterborough or Fleetwood Town

76%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

51%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

26%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

81%

Peterborough 2+ goals

50%

Peterborough 3+ goals

23%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

69%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

33%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

65%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.44 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peterborough scores more

49%

level

24%

Fleetwood Town scores more

27%

Peterborough at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff