Peterborough 4–3 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Crawley Town

C. Hayes 61', 23'

H. Kyprianou 47'

R. Jones 20'

T. Showunmi 55'

W. Swan 53'

A. Adeyemo 38'

12/14/2024

League One · Round 20Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Peterborough57%

×Draw21%

Crawley Town21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.17

Peterborough

2.05

Crawley Town

1.17

Peterborough creates 75% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 24 away

1.94

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Peterborough

1.94

Crawley Town

1.13

allows per match

Peterborough

1.21

Crawley Town

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

79%

Peterborough or Crawley Town

79%

Draw or Crawley Town

43%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

35%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

87%

Peterborough 2+ goals

61%

Peterborough 3+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

69%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

33%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

73%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.21 · 118 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.94 + Crawley Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Crawley Town attack 1.13 + Peterborough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Peterborough scores more

57%

level

21%

Crawley Town scores more

21%

Peterborough at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Adeyemo

Crawley Town · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

20'

23'

32'

38'

47'

53'

55'

T. Showunmi↳ R. Darcy

61'

C. Hayes↳ M. Mothersille

63'

C. Conn-Clarke← J. Randall

63'

H. Mills← J. Sparkes

63'

R. De Havilland← H. Kyprianou

66'

T. John-Jules← W. Swan

66'

H. Forster← R. Darcy

66'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← T. Showunmi

75'

J. Roles← Panutche Camará

79'

B. Ibrahim← M. Anderson

82'

G. Nevett← J. Dornelly

85'

A. Odoh← R. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughCrawley

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots15

6Corners7

5Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots15

10On Target7

5Off Target2

1Blocked6

14Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

413Total Passes430

322Accurate Passes340

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1