Peterborough 3–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

P. Kioso 90+4'

J. Clarke-Harris 61'

H. Burrows 54'

9/19/2023

League One · Round 7Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Peterborough53%

×Draw23%

Cheltenham23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.09

Peterborough

1.77

Cheltenham

1.09

Peterborough creates 62% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 69 away

1.88

creates per match

1.01

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

77%

Peterborough or Cheltenham

77%

Draw or Cheltenham

47%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

30%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

83%

Peterborough 2+ goals

53%

Peterborough 3+ goals

26%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

30%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

69%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Peterborough scores more

53%

level

23%

Cheltenham scores more

23%

Peterborough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

H. Burrows

Peterborough · D

8.6

Match Events

5'

James Olayinka

54'

H. Burrows

61'

R. Street← J. Malcolm

61'

O. Hammond← L. DAuria-Henry

61'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ H. Burrows

70'

Z. Sturge← J. Randall

76'

N. Butler-Oyedeji← A. Keena

78'

J. Wakeling← K. Poku

87'

Nathan Butler-Oyedeji

87'

R. Jones← H. Burrows

87'

E. Chapman← W. Ferry

87'

B. Williams← E. Bonds

88'

Nathan Butler-Oyedeji

88'

Nathan Butler-Oyedeji

90+4'

P. Kioso↳ A. Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughCheltenham

Overview

67%Possession33%

24Total Shots2

15Corners1

7Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots2

5On Target0

8Off Target2

11Blocked0

17Inside Box1

7Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

528Total Passes279

457Accurate Passes196

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

2Offsides1