Peterborough 0–0 Charlton: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

1/26/2019

League One · Round 30ABAX Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Peterborough46%

×Draw25%

Charlton29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Peterborough

1.56

Charlton

1.19

Peterborough creates 31% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 143 away

1.88

creates per match

1.22

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

71%

Peterborough or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

54%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

23%

Charlton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

46%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

33%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

61%

Charlton (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Charlton attack 1.22 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterborough scores more

46%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

29%

Peterborough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Jonathan Williams

65'

R. Hackett-Fairchild← D. Pratley

68'

Krystian Bielik

72'

G. Cooper← L. Tomlin

77'

Ben Reeves

81'

S. Dembele← M. Godden

82'

T. Fosu← J. Williams

86'

Jason Naismith

87'

J. Ward← M. Maddison

Peterborough

Charlton

1

20

5

12

23

16

15

▼

Pratley

21

▼

4

24

18

25

18

2

16

6

30

11

29

▼

Tomlin

9

▼

Godden

17

Toney

21

▼

Maddison

Manager: S. Evans

72'▲G. Cooper←▼L. Tomlin

81'▲S. Dembele←▼M. Godden

87'▲J. Ward←▼M. Maddison

Peterborough substitutes

19Cooper10Dembele15Ward1Chapman4Woodyard14Cooke26Stevens

Manager: L. Bowyer

65'▲R. Hackett-Fairchild←▼D. Pratley

82'▲T. Fosu←▼J. Williams

Charlton substitutes

37Hackett-Fairchild11Fosu2Dijksteel7Marshall10Clarke22Maxwell32Lapslie