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Charlton vs Peterborough — League One 2020

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
M. Gillesphey 89'
M. Godden 54' (pen)
M. Mothersille 63' (pen)
2/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 16The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Charlton43%
×Draw25%
Peterborough32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.55
Peterborough
1.29

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.62
Peterborough
1.35

allows per match

Charlton
1.22
Peterborough
1.48

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
68%
Charlton or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
22%
Peterborough wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
79%
Charlton 2+ goals
46%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
58%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.48 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.62 + Peterborough defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterborough attack 1.35 + Charlton defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
43%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
32%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
J. EdwardsCharltonCharlton · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
Lloyd Jones
41'
M. Mothersille← G. Lindgren
45+3'
Adetayo Edun
54'
M. GoddenPenalty
58'
Emmanuel Fernandez
60'
Luke Berry
61'
Kayne Ramsay
63'
M. MothersillePenalty
72'
M. Leaburn← J. Edwards
79'
C. Aneke← M. Godden
79'
A. Gilbert← L. Berry
79'
A. Odoh← Mahamadou Susoho
88'
Ricky-Jade Jones
89'
M. Gillesphey↳ A. Gilbert
90+2'
A. Mitchell← T. Campbell

Possession

61%Charlton

Shots

19Charlton

Pass accuracy

57%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonPeterborough
Overview
61%Possession39%
19Total Shots5
8Corners0
11Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots5
8On Target3
6Off Target2
5Blocked0
15Inside Box3
4Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
426Total Passes289
302Accurate Passes155
71%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Charlton vs Peterborough

Charlton beat Peterborough 2-1 in League One on February 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Godden (54' pen), M. Mothersille (63' pen), M. Gillesphey (89').

Charlton controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Valley in London.