Peterborough 1–3 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Carlisle

J. Randall 61'

J. Mellish 58', 49', 27'

3/29/2024

League One · Round 41Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Peterborough56%

×Draw23%

Carlisle21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.02

Peterborough

1.82

Carlisle

1.02

Peterborough creates 78% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 25 away

1.88

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Carlisle

0.88

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Carlisle

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

79%

Peterborough or Carlisle

77%

Draw or Carlisle

44%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

32%

Carlisle wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

54%

Peterborough 3+ goals

27%

Carlisle 1+ goals

64%

Carlisle 2+ goals

27%

Carlisle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

73%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Carlisle defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

Carlisle attack 0.88 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peterborough scores more

56%

level

23%

Carlisle scores more

21%

Peterborough at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Mellish

Carlisle · M

9.0

Match Events

7'

Jack Ellis

23'

J. Gibson← T. Charters

27'

J. Mellish↳ J. Gibson

33'

Jon Mellish

49'

J. Mellish

51'

D. Ajiboye← J. Katongo

52'

R. Jones← M. Mothersille

52'

J. Clarke-Harris← R. De Havilland

58'

J. Mellish↳ S. Lavelle

61'

J. Randall↳ H. Burrows

66'

A. McCalmont← D. Butterworth

72'

E. Fernandez← J. Randall

78'

M. Olakigbe← K. Poku

78'

G. Kelly← D. McGeouch

78'

J. Emmanuel← J. Ellis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughCarlisle

Overview

66%Possession34%

23Total Shots12

4Corners3

3Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots12

2On Target5

13Off Target2

8Blocked5

16Inside Box10

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

569Total Passes306

459Accurate Passes184

81%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

3Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0