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Peterborough vs Burton Albion — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
10/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 11Weston Homes Stadium
Big match
47%
Peterborough
model favours
47%22%31%

Burton Albion are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Peterborough47%
×Draw22%
Burton Albion31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.92
Burton Albion
1.52

Peterborough creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Peterborough
2.29
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Peterborough
1.47
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Peterborough+0.11scores more
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
69%
Peterborough or Burton Albion
78%
Draw or Burton Albion
53%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
26%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
85%
Peterborough 2+ goals
57%
Peterborough 3+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
78%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
45%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
60%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.47 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.29 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.92

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Peterborough defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Peterborough scores more
47%
level
22%
Burton Albion scores more
31%

Peterborough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.9% end 0-0
  • Burton Albion fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Burton Albion
Defensively solid
56%Possession46%
79%Pass accuracyBiggest gap62%
12.4Shots11.1
1.72xG1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughBurton Albion

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Peterborough
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–11–02–20–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Albion
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough face Burton Albion (League One)

League One returns with Peterborough hosting Burton Albion. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peterborough host Burton Albion at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.