Burton Albion 2–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Peterborough

R. Burrell 26'

K. Chauke 6'

E. Fernandez 77'

A. Collins 42'

1/1/2025

League One · Round 24Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Burton Albion38%

×Draw26%

Peterborough36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.32

Burton Albion

1.35

Peterborough

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

1.12

creates per match

1.25

1.39

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.12

Peterborough

1.25

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.39

Peterborough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

64%

Burton Albion or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

62%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

17%

Peterborough wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

74%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

39%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

15%

Peterborough 1+ goals

73%

Peterborough 2+ goals

38%

Peterborough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

51%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.12 + Peterborough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Peterborough attack 1.25 + Burton Albion defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more

38%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

36%

Burton Albion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Conn-Clarke

Peterborough · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

K. Chauke↳ D. Williams

26'

R. Burrell↳ D. Orsi

42'

A. Collins↳ C. Conn-Clarke

62'

B. Ihionvien← M. Mothersille

62'

A. Odoh← S. Curtis

69'

B. Whitfield← C. Webster

74'

M. Bennett← D. Orsi

75'

J. Sparkes← G. Nevett

76'

T. Kalinauskas← N. Akoto

77'

Max Crocombe

77'

E. Fernandez↳ C. Conn-Clarke

78'

Dylan Williams

80'

Chris Conn-Clarke

87'

Tomas Kalinauskas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonPeterborough

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots14

3Corners11

7Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots14

3On Target6

2Off Target6

1Blocked2

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

313Total Passes532

231Accurate Passes463

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4