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Peterborough vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
11/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 19Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Peterborough43%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.79
Burton Albion
1.56

Peterborough creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Peterborough
2.04
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Peterborough
1.54
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Peterborough+0.21scores more
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
66%
Peterborough or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
23%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
83%
Peterborough 2+ goals
53%
Peterborough 3+ goals
26%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
79%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
46%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
56%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.04 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.79

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more
43%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Burton Albion

Peterborough beat Burton Albion 4-0 in League One on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.