Peterborough 1–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burton Albion

J. Ward 90+1'

11/23/2019

League One · Round 19Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Peterborough46%

×Draw23%

Burton Albion31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.41

Peterborough

1.77

Burton Albion

1.41

Peterborough creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.91

creates per match

1.30

1.51

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Burton Albion

1.64

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

69%

Peterborough or Burton Albion

77%

Draw or Burton Albion

54%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

25%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

83%

Peterborough 2+ goals

53%

Peterborough 3+ goals

26%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

76%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

41%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

60%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.77

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterborough scores more

46%

level

23%

Burton Albion scores more

31%

Peterborough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Beevers

Peterborough · D

7.9

Match Events

53'

Ryan Edwards

59'

S. Dembele← R. Jade-Jones

61'

N. Broadhead← D. Templeton

64'

Joe Ward

74'

L. Boyce← N. Broadhead

78'

F. Blake-Tracy← H. Burrows

84'

Kieran O'Hara

88'

C. Daniel← O. Šarkić

90+4'

A. Woodyard← M. Maddison

90+1'

J. Ward↳ F. Blake-Tracy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBurton

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots11

7Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

3Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

376Total Passes416

238Accurate Passes284

63%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1