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Peterborough vs Bradford — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
15:00
Bradford
Bradford
3/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 34Weston Homes Stadium
Big match
44%
Peterborough
model favours
44%25%31%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Peterborough44%
×Draw25%
Bradford31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.53
Bradford
1.26

Peterborough creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.63
Bradford
1.11

allows per match

Peterborough
1.41
Bradford
1.44

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
69%
Peterborough or Bradford
75%
Draw or Bradford
56%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
22%
Bradford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
78%
Peterborough 2+ goals
45%
Peterborough 3+ goals
20%
Bradford 1+ goals
72%
Bradford 2+ goals
36%
Bradford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
58%
Bradford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + Bradford defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bradford attack 1.11 + Peterborough defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peterborough scores more
44%
level
25%
Bradford scores more
31%

Peterborough at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Peterborough sit 18, Bradford 5 in the table
  • Bradford fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4 goals
  • Peterborough fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Peterborough
Balanced
Bradford
Attack-heavy
57%Possession53%
79%Pass accuracy68%
13.4Shots16.1
1.49xGBiggest gap1.85
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughBradford

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Peterborough
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 80%
0–21–11–34–42–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Bradford
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough face Bradford (League One)

League One returns with Peterborough hosting Bradford. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peterborough host Bradford at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.