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Bradford vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Bradford
Bradford
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
K. Jackson 50'
B. Pointon 5'
2/14/2026League OneLeague One · Round 32Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bradford45%
×Draw27%
Peterborough28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.39
Peterborough
1.04

Bradford creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.21
Peterborough
1.29

allows per match

Bradford
0.79
Peterborough
1.56

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
72%
Bradford or Peterborough
73%
Draw or Peterborough
55%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
21%
Peterborough wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
75%
Bradford 2+ goals
40%
Bradford 3+ goals
16%
Peterborough 1+ goals
65%
Peterborough 2+ goals
28%
Peterborough 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
61%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.21 + Peterborough defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Peterborough attack 1.29 + Bradford defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bradford scores more
45%
level
27%
Peterborough scores more
28%

Bradford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
B. PointonBradfordBradford · F
8.9

Match Events

5'
B. Pointon
16'
Tyreik Wright
31'
Curtis Tilt
41'
Jimmy Morgan
45+2'
Harry Leonard
46'
L. Mendonca← J. Morgan
48'
M. Pennington← I. Touray
50'
K. Jackson↳ J. Neufville
60'
Brandon Khela
62'
D. Frith← C. Hayes
62'
O. Aderoju← H. Leonard
66'
Max Power
72'
L. Evans← A. Sarcevic
72'
E. Wheatley← K. Jackson
83'
D. O'Brien-Brady← B. Khela
90+3'
H. Ashby← M. Power

Possession

53%Bradford

Shots

29Bradford

Pass accuracy

53%Bradford

Statistics

BradfordPeterborough
Overview
53%Possession47%
29Total Shots4
3.84Expected Goals (xG)0.59
10Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
29Total Shots4
10On Target2
9Off Target1
10Blocked1
17Inside Box3
12Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
442Total Passes403
334Accurate Passes274
76%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Bradford vs Peterborough

Bradford beat Peterborough 2-0 in League One on February 14, 2026.

Goals: B. Pointon (5'), K. Jackson (50').

Bradford controlled possession (53%) and registered 29 shots to 4.

The match was played at Valley Parade in Bradford.