Peterborough 2–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

J. Marriott 87'

S. Szmodics 83'

B. Brereton 77'

4/15/2022

Championship · Round 42Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Peterborough39%

×Draw27%

Blackburn35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Peterborough

1.31

Blackburn

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 194 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Peterborough

1.19

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Peterborough

1.31

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

65%

Peterborough or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

61%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

17%

Blackburn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

73%

Peterborough 2+ goals

38%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

35%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

53%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.19 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Peterborough defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peterborough scores more

39%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

35%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Kaminski

Blackburn · G

8.2

Match Events

22'

Adetayo Edun

41'

Adetayo Edun

41'

Adetayo Edun

43'

B. Johnson← R. Nyambe

46'

B. Dack← S. Gallagher

52'

Jeando Fuchs

61'

J. Marriott← R. Jones

72'

T. Dolan← J. Buckley

73'

J. Randall← J. Fuchs

77'

B. Brereton↳ J. van Hecke

83'

Jan Paul van Hecke

83'

S. Szmodics↳ H. Burrows

87'

J. Marriott↳ J. Clarke-Harris

90'

R. Brown← K. Poku

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughBlackburn

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots13

7Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots13

10On Target2

2Off Target5

3Blocked6

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

379Total Passes325

265Accurate Passes199

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0