Peterborough 3–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 2

Birmingham

7/29/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peterborough27%

×Draw21%

Birmingham52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.13

Peterborough

1.50

Birmingham

2.13

Birmingham creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

2.25

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Peterborough

2.25

Birmingham

2.25

allows per match

Peterborough

2.00

Birmingham

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

48%

Peterborough or Birmingham

79%

Draw or Birmingham

73%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

12%

Birmingham wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

78%

Peterborough 2+ goals

44%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Birmingham 1+ goals

88%

Birmingham 2+ goals

63%

Birmingham 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

34%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Birmingham away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 2.25 + Birmingham defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Birmingham attack 2.25 + Peterborough defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more

27%

level

21%

Birmingham scores more

52%

Birmingham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff