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Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
Preview
15:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
3/26/2027League OneLeague One · Round 37Weston Homes Stadium
48%
Peterborough
model favours
48%24%28%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Peterborough48%
×Draw24%
AFC Wimbledon28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.69
AFC Wimbledon
1.25

Peterborough creates 35% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 25 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.63
AFC Wimbledon
1.08

allows per match

Peterborough
1.43
AFC Wimbledon
1.76

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
72%
Peterborough or AFC Wimbledon
76%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
52%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
25%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
82%
Peterborough 2+ goals
50%
Peterborough 3+ goals
24%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
71%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
36%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
63%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.08 + Peterborough defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterborough scores more
48%
level
24%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
28%

Peterborough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Peterborough
Attack-heavy
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
56%Possession48%
79%Pass accuracy66%
12.9Shots10.8
1.69xGBiggest gap0.77
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PeterboroughAFC Wimbledon

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Peterborough
LDLDL
Wimbledon
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon — Match Preview

Peterborough face AFC Wimbledon on March 26, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peterborough host AFC Wimbledon at Weston Homes Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.