Peterborough 5–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

G. Lindgren 90', 77'

K. Lisbie 36'

H. Leonard 16' (pen), 11'

11/8/2025

League One · Round 15Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Peterborough48%

×Draw24%

AFC Wimbledon28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Peterborough

1.69

AFC Wimbledon

1.23

Peterborough creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

1.61

creates per match

1.08

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Peterborough

1.61

AFC Wimbledon

1.08

allows per match

Peterborough

1.39

AFC Wimbledon

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

72%

Peterborough or AFC Wimbledon

76%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

52%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

26%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

82%

Peterborough 2+ goals

50%

Peterborough 3+ goals

24%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

71%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

35%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

63%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.61 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.08 + Peterborough defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterborough scores more

48%

level

24%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

28%

Peterborough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

H. Mills

Peterborough · D

8.9

Match Events

11'

H. Leonard↳ P. Kioso

15'

Isaac Ogundere

16'

H. LeonardPenalty

22'

Thomas O'Connor

36'

K. Lisbie↳ M. Garbett

46'

N. Asiimwe← I. Ogundere

46'

A. Hackford← D. Orsi-Dadomo

48'

Peter Kioso

73'

G. Lindgren← H. Leonard

74'

D. Frith← A. Odoh

74'

J. Morgan← M. Garbett

77'

G. Lindgren↳ J. Morgan

79'

K. Lolos← K. Lisbie

79'

S. Hutchinson← M. Browne

79'

C. Maycock← A. Sasu

86'

C. Johnston← P. Kioso

90'

G. Lindgren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughAFC

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots12

3.29Expected Goals (xG)0.74

3Corners5

9Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target4

2Off Target5

6Blocked3

13Inside Box8

0Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

375Total Passes393

283Accurate Passes273

75%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

League One: Peterborough 5–0 AFC Wimbledon

Peterborough beat AFC Wimbledon 5-0 in League One on November 8, 2025.

Goals: H. Leonard (11', 16' pen), K. Lisbie (36'), G. Lindgren (77', 90').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Peterborough 5–0 AFC Wimbledon