Peterborough 3–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

M. Eisa 66', 41'

M. Maddison 29'

A. Wordsworth 78'

M. Pinnock 52'

9/28/2019

League One · Round 11Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Peterborough52%

×Draw22%

AFC Wimbledon26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.29

Peterborough

1.92

AFC Wimbledon

1.29

Peterborough creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.91

creates per match

1.07

1.51

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

AFC Wimbledon

1.92

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

AFC Wimbledon+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

74%

Peterborough or AFC Wimbledon

78%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

48%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

30%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

85%

Peterborough 2+ goals

57%

Peterborough 3+ goals

30%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

37%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

67%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peterborough scores more

52%

level

22%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

26%

Peterborough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eisa

Peterborough · F

8.7

Match Events

23'

29'

33'

38'

41'

M. Eisa↳ G. Boyd

44'

Callum Reilly

46'

M. Pinnock← T. Thomas

46'

A. Wordsworth← C. Reilly

50'

Anthony Wordsworth

52'

M. Pinnock↳ K. Appiah

66'

M. Eisa↳ J. Knight

78'

A. Wordsworth↳ P. Osew

79'

A. Woodyard← L. Reed

79'

S. Tasdemir← M. Maddison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughAFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

25Total Shots12

5Corners7

11Fouls19

Shots

25Total Shots12

12On Target3

9Off Target4

4Blocked5

16Inside Box3

9Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

334Total Passes404

231Accurate Passes307

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls19

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides5