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Peterborough vs Accrington ST — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
J. Clarke-Harris 59'
K. Poku 51'
E. Mason-Clark 33'
H. Rodgers 24'
10/25/2022League OneLeague One · Round 13Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Peterborough54%
×Draw23%
Accrington ST23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.78
Accrington ST
1.06

Peterborough creates 68% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 107 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.88
Accrington ST
0.96

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Accrington ST
1.68

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
77%
Peterborough or Accrington ST
77%
Draw or Accrington ST
46%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
30%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
83%
Peterborough 2+ goals
53%
Peterborough 3+ goals
26%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
65%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
29%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
71%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peterborough scores more
54%
level
23%
Accrington ST scores more
23%

Peterborough at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. Mason-ClarkPeterboroughPeterborough · M
8.3

Match Events

10'
Liam Coyle
23'
Jeando Fuchs
24'
H. Rodgers
33'
E. Mason-Clark↳ J. Taylor
51'
K. Poku↳ E. Mason-Clark
56'
Jack Taylor
59'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ N. Thompson
63'
Douglas Tharme
65'
Ryan Astley
67'
D. Martin← L. Coyle
67'
Baba Fernandes← D. Tharme
71'
R. Longelo-Mbule← S. Whalley
82'
J. Marriott← J. Clarke-Harris
82'
H. Kyprianou← J. Fuchs
85'
Alhagi Sisay← T. Leigh
86'
N. Delfouneso← S. McConville
90+3'
Harvey Rodgers

Possession

64%Peterborough

Shots

14Peterborough

Pass accuracy

58%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughAccrington
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots18
7Corners3
11Fouls19
Shots
14Total Shots18
6On Target5
5Off Target6
3Blocked7
8Inside Box12
6Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
438Total Passes246
353Accurate Passes146
81%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Accrington ST

Peterborough beat Accrington ST 3-1 in League One on October 25, 2022.

Goals: H. Rodgers (24'), E. Mason-Clark (33'), K. Poku (51'), J. Clarke-Harris (59').

Peterborough controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.