Peterborough United W 0–1 Durham W: Result & Stats

Peterborough United W

0 – 1

Durham W

1/8/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundAbbey Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peterborough United W61%

×Draw19%

Durham W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peterborough United WExpected goals in this matchDurham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.32

Peterborough United W

2.41

Durham W

1.32

Peterborough United W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

3.25

creates per match

2.14

0.50

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Peterborough United W

3.25

Durham W

2.14

allows per match

Peterborough United W

0.50

Durham W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough United W+0.00on par

Durham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough United W ↓

Durham W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Peterborough United W or draw

80%

Peterborough United W or Durham W

81%

Draw or Durham W

39%

Winning margin

Peterborough United W wins by 2+

39%

Durham W wins by 2+

Team goals

Peterborough United W 1+ goals

91%

Peterborough United W 2+ goals

69%

Peterborough United W 3+ goals

43%

Durham W 1+ goals

73%

Durham W 2+ goals

38%

Durham W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peterborough United W (draw refunded)

75%

Durham W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peterborough United W at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Durham W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough United W attack 3.25 + Durham W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Durham W attack 2.14 + Peterborough United W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Peterborough United W scores more

61%

level

19%

Durham W scores more

20%

Peterborough United W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Peterborough United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peterborough United W vs Durham W

Durham W beat Peterborough United W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Abbey Lawn in Bourne, Lincolnshire.

Peterborough United W vs Durham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Peterborough United W vs Durham W