Peterborough Sports 2–4 Peterborough

Peterborough Sports

FT

2 – 4

Peterborough

8/4/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Branch Bros Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peterborough Sports10%

×Draw12%

Peterborough78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peterborough SportsExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.38

Peterborough Sports

1.17

Peterborough

3.38

Peterborough creates 189% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

3.25

3.50

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Peterborough Sports

1.25

Peterborough

3.25

allows per match

Peterborough Sports

3.50

Peterborough

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough Sports+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough Sports ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Peterborough Sports or draw

22%

Peterborough Sports or Peterborough

88%

Draw or Peterborough

90%

Winning margin

Peterborough Sports wins by 2+

3%

Peterborough wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Peterborough Sports 1+ goals

69%

Peterborough Sports 2+ goals

33%

Peterborough Sports 3+ goals

11%

Peterborough 1+ goals

96%

Peterborough 2+ goals

84%

Peterborough 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Peterborough Sports (draw refunded)

11%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough Sports at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Peterborough away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough Sports attack 1.25 + Peterborough defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Peterborough attack 3.25 + Peterborough Sports defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Peterborough Sports scores more

10%

level

12%

Peterborough scores more

78%

Peterborough at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff