Petare FC 2–0 Libertador FC: Result & Stats

Petare FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Libertador FC

7/30/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Petare FC52%

×Draw28%

Libertador FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petare FCExpected goals in this matchLibertador FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.75

Petare FC

1.40

Libertador FC

0.75

Petare FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 45 away

1.46

creates per match

0.73

0.77

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Petare FC

1.46

Libertador FC

0.73

allows per match

Petare FC

0.77

Libertador FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par

Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Libertador FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw

80%

Petare FC or Libertador FC

72%

Draw or Libertador FC

48%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+

26%

Libertador FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals

75%

Petare FC 2+ goals

41%

Petare FC 3+ goals

17%

Libertador FC 1+ goals

53%

Libertador FC 2+ goals

17%

Libertador FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)

72%

Libertador FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Petare FC scores more

52%

level

28%

Libertador FC scores more

20%

Petare FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff