Petare FC 3–0 Fundacion AIFI: Result & Stats

Petare FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fundacion AIFI

5/12/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Petare FC54%

×Draw26%

Fundacion AIFI20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petare FCExpected goals in this matchFundacion AIFI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.81

Petare FC

1.52

Fundacion AIFI

0.81

Petare FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 66 away

1.46

creates per match

0.85

0.77

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Petare FC

1.46

Fundacion AIFI

0.85

allows per match

Petare FC

0.77

Fundacion AIFI

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Fundacion AIFI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw

80%

Petare FC or Fundacion AIFI

74%

Draw or Fundacion AIFI

46%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+

28%

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals

78%

Petare FC 2+ goals

45%

Petare FC 3+ goals

20%

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals

56%

Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals

19%

Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)

73%

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Petare FC scores more

54%

level

26%

Fundacion AIFI scores more

20%

Petare FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff