Peshtera Galata 1–2 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Peshtera Galata

FT

1 – 2

Spartak Pleven

4/7/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata31%

×Draw24%

Spartak Pleven46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peshtera GalataExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.69

Peshtera Galata

1.34

Spartak Pleven

1.69

Spartak Pleven creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

1.93

creates per match

2.08

1.29

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Peshtera Galata

1.93

Spartak Pleven

2.08

allows per match

Peshtera Galata

1.29

Spartak Pleven

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw

54%

Peshtera Galata or Spartak Pleven

76%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

69%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+

13%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals

74%

Peshtera Galata 2+ goals

39%

Peshtera Galata 3+ goals

15%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

50%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)

40%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.34

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more

31%

level

24%

Spartak Pleven scores more

46%

Spartak Pleven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff