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Peshtera Galata vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
4 – 1
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
10/18/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 11Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata62%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
2.17
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.08

Peshtera Galata creates 101% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 81 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
82%
Peshtera Galata or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
38%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
39%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
89%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
64%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
77%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.17

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
62%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
18%

Peshtera Galata at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peshtera Galata vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Peshtera Galata beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 4-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.