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Peshtera Galata vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
CANC
14:00
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
4/22/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 27Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata70%
×Draw17%
Juventus Malchika14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
2.55
Juventus Malchika
1.04

Peshtera Galata creates 145% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 65 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
86%
Peshtera Galata or Juventus Malchika
83%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
30%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
48%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
92%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
72%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
46%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
65%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
28%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
84%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.55

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
70%
level
17%
Juventus Malchika scores more
14%

Peshtera Galata at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peshtera Galata vs Juventus Malchika — Match Preview

Peshtera Galata face Juventus Malchika on April 22, 2022 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peshtera Galata host Juventus Malchika at Stadion Peshtera Galata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.