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Peshtera Galata vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Peshtera Galata
Peshtera Galata
FT
2 – 1
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
10/3/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 9Stadion Peshtera Galata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peshtera Galata62%
×Draw20%
Etar VT II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peshtera Galata
2.14
Etar VT II
1.07

Peshtera Galata creates 100% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

Peshtera Galata
1.93
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Peshtera Galata
1.29
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Peshtera Galata+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peshtera Galata ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Peshtera Galata or draw
82%
Peshtera Galata or Etar VT II
80%
Draw or Etar VT II
38%

Winning margin

Peshtera Galata wins by 2+
38%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Peshtera Galata 1+ goals
88%
Peshtera Galata 2+ goals
63%
Peshtera Galata 3+ goals
36%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
66%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
29%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Peshtera Galata (draw refunded)
77%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peshtera Galata at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peshtera Galata attack 1.93 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.14

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Peshtera Galata defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Peshtera Galata scores more
62%
level
20%
Etar VT II scores more
18%

Peshtera Galata at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Peshtera Galata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peshtera Galata vs Etar VT II

Peshtera Galata beat Etar VT II 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Peshtera Galata in Galata.