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Pesch vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Pesch
Pesch
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
12/8/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pesch51%
×Draw21%
Union Schafhausen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pesch
2.19
Union Schafhausen
1.58

Pesch creates 39% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pesch
1.76
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Pesch
2.19
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Pesch+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pesch ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pesch or draw
72%
Pesch or Union Schafhausen
79%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
49%

Winning margin

Pesch wins by 2+
31%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pesch 1+ goals
89%
Pesch 2+ goals
64%
Pesch 3+ goals
37%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
79%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
47%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pesch (draw refunded)
65%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pesch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pesch attack 1.76 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.19

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Pesch defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pesch scores more
51%
level
21%
Union Schafhausen scores more
28%

Pesch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pesch vs Union Schafhausen

Pesch beat Union Schafhausen 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage in Köln.