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Pesch vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Pesch
Pesch
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
9/4/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pesch46%
×Draw21%
Friesdorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pesch
2.13
Friesdorf
1.77

Pesch creates 20% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pesch
1.76
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Pesch
2.19
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Pesch+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pesch ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pesch or draw
67%
Pesch or Friesdorf
79%
Draw or Friesdorf
54%

Winning margin

Pesch wins by 2+
27%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pesch 1+ goals
88%
Pesch 2+ goals
63%
Pesch 3+ goals
35%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
83%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
53%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Pesch (draw refunded)
59%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pesch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pesch attack 1.76 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Pesch defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pesch scores more
46%
level
21%
Friesdorf scores more
33%

Pesch at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Pesch 6–0 Friesdorf

Pesch beat Friesdorf 6-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage in Köln.