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Pesch vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Pesch
Pesch
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
5/1/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pesch34%
×Draw22%
Freialdenhoven44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pesch
1.71
Freialdenhoven
1.97

Freialdenhoven creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pesch
1.76
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Pesch
2.19
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Pesch+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pesch ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pesch or draw
56%
Pesch or Freialdenhoven
78%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
66%

Winning margin

Pesch wins by 2+
17%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Pesch 1+ goals
82%
Pesch 2+ goals
51%
Pesch 3+ goals
24%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
86%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
58%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Pesch (draw refunded)
43%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pesch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pesch attack 1.76 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Pesch defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pesch scores more
34%
level
22%
Freialdenhoven scores more
44%

Freialdenhoven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pesch vs Freialdenhoven

Pesch and Freialdenhoven drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage in Köln.