Pesch 5–0 Eilendorf: Result & Stats

Pesch

FT

5 – 0

Eilendorf

9/20/2020

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Kunstrasenplatz Helmut-Kusserow-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pesch48%

×Draw22%

Eilendorf30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeschExpected goals in this matchEilendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.54

Pesch

1.98

Eilendorf

1.54

Pesch creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 20 away

1.76

creates per match

0.90

2.19

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Pesch

1.76

Eilendorf

0.90

allows per match

Pesch

2.19

Eilendorf

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pesch+0.00on par

Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pesch ↓

Eilendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Pesch or draw

70%

Pesch or Eilendorf

78%

Draw or Eilendorf

52%

Winning margin

Pesch wins by 2+

27%

Eilendorf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pesch 1+ goals

86%

Pesch 2+ goals

59%

Pesch 3+ goals

31%

Eilendorf 1+ goals

79%

Eilendorf 2+ goals

45%

Eilendorf 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pesch (draw refunded)

61%

Eilendorf (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pesch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pesch attack 1.76 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Pesch defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pesch scores more

48%

level

22%

Eilendorf scores more

30%

Pesch at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff